2022 Stanley Cup Final: Avalanche vs. Lightning odds, NHL picks, Game 3 prediction from proven hockey model

The Tampa Bay Lightning and Colorado Avalanche battle in Game 3 of the 2022 Stanley Cup Final on Monday evening. Colorado leads the best-of-seven matchup by a 2-0 margin. The series shifts to Amalie Arena in Tampa for the first time, with the Lightning badly needing a victory to avoid a 3-0 series hole. Colorado flattened Tampa Bay in Game 2, making history with a 7-0 blowout.

Tampa Bay is the slight -115 (risk $115 to win $100) favorite on the money line in the latest Avalanche vs. Lightning odds from Caesars Sportsbook. The over-under for total goals scored is six. The opening faceoff is at 8 p.m. ET in Tampa. Before making any Lightning vs. Avalanche picks, check out the NHL predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The model simulates each NHL game 10,000 times. It enters the second week of the 2022 Stanley Cup Final on a 23-18 run on its top-rated NHL side picks. Anybody who has followed it has seen profitable returns.

Now, the model has its sights on Avs vs. Lightning. You can visit SportsLine now to see the picks. Here are the NHL odds and betting trends for Lightning vs. Avs:
• Avalanche vs. Lightning tickets: See tickets at StubHub
• COL: The Avalanche were 24-14-3 on the road in the regular season
• TB: The Lightning were 27-8-6 at home in the regular season

Why the Avalanche can win



Colorado has dominated this series, including the seven-goal blowout in Game 2. The Avs also won both games against the Lightning during the regular season, and Colorado is 14-2 with a +33 goal differential in the playoffs overall. Colorado was quite good defensively this season, yielding only 2.83 goals per game with a top-five save percentage, but the Avalanche also boast a high-powered offensive attack.

Colorado was No. 4 in the NHL in goals, shots per game and assists this season, and the Avalanche led the league in power play goals with 67. Colorado was also in the top seven in shooting percentage and No. 2 in the NHL in point percentage (.726) on the way to 56 wins. Colorado has scored at least three goals in 10 consecutive games, including at least four goals in the last six games dating back to the Western Conference Finals.

Why the Lightning can win

Tampa Bay's pedigree speaks for itself as a two-time reigning Stanley Cup champion. With a top-flight offense and a goalie -- Andrei Vasilevskiy -- who many consider to be the best in the world, the Lightning are in a solid position for Game 3 and, like many teams, Tampa Bay is notably better in its home building at Amalie Arena. Tampa Bay was in the top 10 of the NHL in goals, assists, power play percentage and myriad categories this season, and the Lightning have star power on offense.

Two-time All-Star Steven Stamkos leads the team with nine postseason goals, and he finished in the top ten of the NHL in goals and assists this season. Stamkos tied for the league lead with 11 game-winning goals and ranked No. 6 in the NHL in points. Elsewhere, Nikita Kucherov is a four-time All-Star who was No. 2 in the league in points per game (1.47) this season, and he has 24 postseason points, ranking in the top three of the NHL.

How to make Lightning vs. Avalanche picks

SportsLine's model is leaning over on the total, as the simulations have the teams combining for 6.5 goals. It also says one side of the money line has all the value. You can only get the pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Lightning vs. Avalanche in Game 3 of the 2022 Stanley Cup Final? And which side of the money line has all the value? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Avalanche vs. Lightning money line to jump on, all from the advanced model that has simulated this matchup 10,000 times.