A playoff drought and a winnable NL East could compel the .500 Phillies to buy at today’s trade deadline

After Brad Miller circled the bases, stomped on home plate, and jumped up and down with his delirious teammates Thursday, the Phillies are a .500 team for the 21st time in 102 games. They have scored fewer runs than they’ve allowed. Their third-best starting pitcher is sidelined with a knee injury. They lead the major leagues in blown saves and have one of the worst defenses, a shortcoming for which there isn’t a quick fix.

Objectively, there’s no reason they shouldn’t sit out the trade deadline at 4 p.m. Friday.

Except the Phillies have the seventh-largest payroll in baseball (approximately $205.5 million for luxury-tax purposes), the second-longest active playoff drought (nine years), and one of the softest schedules in August and September. The out-of-town scoreboard continues to tease, too. It read “ATL 6, NYM 3” when Miller drove his walk-off grand slam off the second-deck facade in right field to cap an improbable comeback from seven runs down and leave the Phillies 3 1/2 games behind the division-leading New York Mets in a middling National League East.

The way forward, then, is to keep moving forward. Because unlike the everything-must-go Washington Nationals, the Phillies don’t have a still-shiny World Series trophy to gaze upon as they tear apart the roster and attempt to reload. And for an organization that hasn’t gone to the postseason since the first term of the Obama administration, just getting there would qualify as a considerable achievement.

» READ MORE: Brad Miller’s grand slam gives Phillies improbable 11-8 win and other observations from a doubleheader split entering trade deadline

“I can feel how badly [ownership] would like it to end,” president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski said recently. “And I get it. Not just them but other people in the organization.”

So, the Phillies were said to be focused Thursday night on upgrading their pitching. Dombrowski’s default setting is to go for it, but how aggressive will he be in the final hours before the deadline? Although the Phillies were never going to wind up with Max Scherzer, Chicago Cubs closer Craig Kimbrel is still available. Will the sight of the Phillies mobbing Miller at home plate compel Dombrowski to make a big move?

“Yeah, I mean, it’s got to be smart, though,” Bryce Harper said. “We can’t just do it just to do it.”

The rotation has been a priority, especially with Zach Eflin sidelined indefinitely by patellar tendinitis in his right knee. The Phillies thought they added innings-eating lefty Tyler Anderson earlier in the week until the trade fell apart when the Pittsburgh Pirates raised concerns about the medical reports on Class A pitcher Cristian Hernandez.

There are rent-a-starter alternatives, including the Cubs’ Zach Davies and the Colorado Rockies’ Jon Gray, both of whom will be free agents after the season. But in calling up rookie Cristopher Sánchez to start the second game of Thursday’s doubleheader and pushing everyone else back by one day, the Phillies might have signaled that it’s unlikely they will acquire a starter.

Dombrowski hinted last weekend that deepening the bullpen might be one way to mitigate the effects of short starts from Vince Velasquez, Matt Moore, and Spencer Howard. Several relievers have already been dealt, including Daniel Hudson, Ryan Tepera, Brad Hand, Yimi García, Mychal Givens, Kendall Graveman, and Andrew Chafin.

The Phillies could still chase Baltimore Orioles lefties Paul Fry and Tanner Scott, Texas Rangers closer Ian Kennedy, or Pirates closer Richard Rodríguez, although it’s unclear if they will attempt another deal with Pittsburgh.

But Kimbrel is the biggest difference-maker. Given Kimbrel’s 0.49 ERA and 46.7% strikeout rate, and considering he has a $16 million team option for next year, the Cubs are selling high, a problem for the prospect-poor Phillies. They could reduce the acquisition cost by picking up all of the nearly $6 million that Kimbrel is owed this season, but that would put them over the $210 million luxury-tax threshold unless they off-load salary.

It’s possible, though, that the Cubs’ ask will come down as the deadline draws closer. Having unloaded Chafin, Tepera, outfielder Joc Pederson, and star first baseman Anthony Rizzo, they will be motivated to get what they can for Kimbrel, Kris Bryant, and Davies, too.

“I do think you’re in a position where you keep an open mind on what’s going on,” said Dombrowski, not referring to a specific player. “It’s amazing what clubs ask for a few days ago and what they start asking for closer to the deadline.”

The biggest splashes so far have come from the New York Yankees (Joey Gallo, Rizzo) and Los Angeles Dodgers (Scherzer, Trea Turner). The San Diego Padres and San Francisco Giants likely will counter the Dodgers’ moves.

Interestingly, the Mets haven’t been active since they picked up 41-year-old lefty Rich Hill at the beginning of the week. Perhaps they feel as confident in their slim division lead as the Phillies do about catching them.

“They always say 50-50 in the first 100 games and what you do with the other 62. It’s perfect for us,” Harper said. “We’re in a division that the Mets are good, the Braves are good, and we’ve got to beat both of those teams. We’ve got a great schedule ahead of us.

“We have so much faith in Dombo and what he does. We have so much faith in [general manager] Sam [Fuld] as well. They know the players that we need. They understand our weaknesses and what we need to add. I’m looking forward to seeing what type of team we’re going to be after 4 o’clock. We’ll see what happens.”