All-NBA stakes are high for Jaylen Brown, even higher for the Celtics

BOSTON — After watching Jaylen Brown burn down the inside of San Antonio’s defense Sunday night, Malcolm Brogdon delivered a proclamation that could help shape the Celtics’ future if proven true.

“He’ll be All-NBA,” said Brogdon. “He’ll make one of the teams this year.”

As Brogdon suggested, Brown is establishing himself as a realistic candidate for an All-NBA team with a sprint toward the end of the regular season. When the Celtics were searching for their best collective self earlier this month, he was a lead wolf trying to guide them back in the right direction. As they have started to click again with three straight dominant wins, including Sunday’s 137-93 thumping of the Spurs, he has continued to push them forward. Over Boston’s last eight games, Brown has averaged 31.1 points, 6.9 rebounds and 4.0 assists per game while shooting 54.8 percent from the field, including 41.0 percent on 3-point attempts.

Brown, who scored 41 points against San Antonio, hasn’t always cared about individual awards. The morning after the NBA announced he made this season’s All-Star Game, he reacted to the honor by sarcastically calling it the best day of his life. At the time, he detailed how the Celtics have their eyes on other goals. He also explained why he tries not to let other people determine his value.

That’s an admirable goal, but in this case, the All-NBA voters will quite literally determine Brown’s value. If he makes one of the three All-NBA teams, he will be in line for a supermax extension from the Celtics this offseason worth about $290 million over five seasons. Because of his current contract situation, Brown’s decision on whether to sign an extension with Boston this summer could very well be determined by whether he earns the honor. He will be eligible for an extension either way, but, at least with the rules of the current collective bargaining agreement, he would be able to seek millions of dollars more per season by waiting for free agency in the summer of 2024 … unless he qualifies for the supermax now.

Brown could be on track to do so. For a recent story about Julius Randle’s All-NBA chances, The Athletic’s Fred Katz polled 39 writers and potential voters about their All-NBA forward choices. In the exercise, Brown was the final forward elected to the third team, joining Giannis Antetokounmpo and Jayson Tatum (first team), Jimmy Butler and Julius Randle (second team) and Lauri Markkanen (third team) on the ballot.

Those results don’t mean Brown is a shoo-in for a spot. The forwards behind him are Kevin Durant, LeBron James and Kawhi Leonard, all of whom could get more consideration if healthy during the stretch run. Other candidates have been surging lately, including Jaren Jackson Jr., a threat to win the Defensive Player of the Year award.

Also among the factors in whether the results will hold, the poll considered Brown eligible at both forward and guard. Though that seems likely based on how evenly he slides between the positions (he has played about 60 percent of his minutes as a forward, according to Cleaning the Glass’ position estimates), his path would likely be more difficult at the crowded guard spot. The league’s policy has been to count all the votes for players eligible at multiple positions before slotting each player at the position where he received the most votes.

At least for the purpose of All-NBA voting, somebody should tell Brogdon he might want to spread the word that his teammate should be considered a forward.

“He’s the best shooting guard in the league,” Brogdon said.

For the 52-23 Celtics, the All-NBA stakes could be even higher than they are for Brown. Though the collective bargaining agreement is under negotiation, the current version will only allow them to offer a 120 percent raise in the first year of an extension if Brown misses the All-NBA team this season. Because he’s currently on a non-max contract, the difference between that value and his potential max via free agency would be substantial. Over four years of his next deal, Brown would be potentially giving up about $20 million by signing an extension this summer instead of waiting for free agency one year from now. Even if he does want to stay in Boston, he would have a significant financial incentive to wait for free agency first.

From the Celtics’ perspective, letting him get there could be dangerous, especially if Brown’s recent noncommittal comments about his future are signs he would consider a new team. After recent remarks about his future with the Celtics to The Ringer’s Logan Murdock and about the city of Boston to The New York Times’ Sopan Deb, Brown was asked last week how he feels about both.

“I feel great,” Brown said. “I’m on a 50-win team right now that you can’t take for granted. Tonight was the 50th win. And right now I’m focused on helping to lead my team for another playoff run. In terms of speculation, et cetera, I can’t speculate on anything above what I’m doing right now. I think sometimes when people write articles they get taken out of context especially when writers have their own agendas or whatever. So for me personally, I’m thinking about clarifying some of the things that have been recently said. But other than that, I’m just focused on my team. I’m focused on playing basketball and winning games.”

When asked what he wanted to clarify, Brown declined to share.

“Nothing right now,” Brown said. “Right now the only thing I want to clarify is that the Celtics need to play better and win more games. If I want to say something in the future about the kind of things that have been floating around I will. But in terms of right now, I like when people hear things from the horse’s mouth and you can see my reaction, my face and everything how I feel about what I’m saying. Sometimes those things can get lost in translation, you know? So if I feel the need to do so I will. I keep constant communication with my teammates and my organization and we’ve gotta have everybody on board if we want to do what we say we want to do. So right now I’m focused on that.”

Right now, Brown is also playing the type of basketball that could simplify his upcoming contract situation by landing him on an All-NBA team. If the Celtics can offer him a supermax extension this offseason, before any other teams are allowed to speak to Brown, they could potentially wrap up his next deal without any drama. That would eventually lead to expensive luxury tax bills, but the team would have a chance to compete year after year with Brown and Tatum in their primes.

With Tatum sidelined by a left hip contusion Sunday, Brown served as the Celtics’ lone All-Star. Though the Spurs don’t represent the world’s best competition, he drove through them, spun past them and flew over them en route to 41 points on 18-for-29 shooting. That gave him seven straight games with at least 25 points scored, including a pair of 40-point outings during that stretch.

Brown’s All-NBA case is growing stronger. Unlike many other star wings, he has been relatively healthy, with a chance to play in 70 games if he appears in every contest throughout the remainder of the regular season. Brown has produced consistently on both ends of the court for a Celtics team that finished Sunday on a 57-win pace. Though Brown has long been a dangerous scorer, coach Joe Mazzulla believes the two-time All-Star has reached another level with his basketball IQ.

“I just think he’s always had the ability to score, but now he has the ability to break defenses down, to understand how the defense is guarding him, to anticipate where the help is coming from, and then to make the right play,” Mazzulla said. “And so to me, his scoring is obviously huge for us, but his decision-making and his reads have gotten a lot better. It’s a credit to him because he works at it every single day.”

Brown broke down the Spurs thoroughly enough to make 16 of 19 2-point attempts, including a soaring near dunk over the top of Sandro Mamukelashvili.

“His game really speaks for itself,” said Brogdon. “When JT is out, he’s the No. 1 option. He’s showing that he can be that. He’s put in the work, he’s evolved. Since we came in the league together, he’s evolved and taken giant steps forward every year, and he’s playing at an extremely high level.”