Champions League final: Man City-Inter Milan betting tips

by 24USATVJune 9, 2023, 7 p.m. 20

Manchester City's quest for the treble continues Saturday as the Premier League champions face off against FA Cup champion Inter Milan in the UEFA Champions League final from Istanbul. A victory would earn City a place alongside arch-rival Manchester United as only the second side to win the Premier League, FA Cup and Champions League in the same season.

What do we like from a betting perspective for the match? Here are our experts' top plays.

Which team offers the best betting value for Saturday's match?

Carr: Man City are obviously more likely to win, but there just isn't any value on City at -500 to lift the trophy or even -225 to win in regulation, with both numbers inflated a little in this marquee final. As painful as the idea of betting against City is, I'm going with Inter on the 90-minute double chance at +170. I like how Inter's five-man back line can match up better against City's attack than Real Madrid's four-man back line did. And this is an Inter team that has proved their mettle in knockout games, slogging through the UCL knockout stage and winning Coppa Italia and the Supercoppa this season. Under Simone Inzaghi, Inter have lost only five of 32 cup games. None of those games were against Man City of course, but I still like the price on Inter here.

Cuff: There is no value in betting City straight up as Paul has outlined, but I can't bet against them. I think they're the significantly better side and will prove that over 90 minutes. Given my prop play (below), if you can parlay City ML and under 2.5 goals, you're into +250 territory. The more straightforward play that I also like is to lay the goals, City -1.5 (+120).

Thomas: City to win by +2 goals (+120). We know Inter are going to do their best to stifle City and probably will for much of the game, but the attacking options of the EPL champions means they will make the break through on more than one occasion.

Stream on ESPN+: LaLiga, Bundesliga, more (U.S.)

What is your best prop bet for the final?

Carr: Both teams to score (+100). The case for a City goal barely needs explaining. They've scored in 54 of 60 matches this season, including 26 of their last 27, getting shut out only in a meaningless game against Brentford. Inter have been rolling too, tallying in 13 straight games and accumulating at least one expected goal in 18 straight games since mid-March. Inter's wingbacks should find space as City's defenders push forward, and Inter has plenty of forwards to target in the box.

Cuff: Finals in general tend to be tight affairs; the last four Champions League finals were all under 2.5 goals and the last three have been 1-0 matches. This is and has been the ultimate goal and only trophy City hasn't won since Pep Guardiola arrived. Last time they were in this position, Pep seemed to overthink it and made some tactical decisions that contributed to their 1-0 Loss to Chelsea. I don't think he'll do anything out of character, but I think this game will be tight again and Inter's focus will be on defending. In Inter's six knockout-round matches, five have hit under 2.5 goals. So I may pay for this because we know how potent City can be, but under 2.5 goals (+105) is my play.

Thomas: Ilkay Gundogan anytime goal (+280). This looks like fantastic value. The man is on fire at the moment and has a tendency to score big goals in big games.

Former ESPN senior researcher Paul Carr is director of content for TruMedia.


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