Chiefs vs. Chargers odds, spread, line: Sunday Night Football picks, predictions by NFL model on 153-108 run

The Los Angeles Chargers will look to put an end to the Kansas City Chiefs recent dominance in their series when they meet in a key AFC West showdown on Sunday Night Football. The Chiefs (7-2), who have won two straight in the series, have won 13 of the last 16 meetings between the teams. The Chargers (5-4) are looking for their first home win against Kansas City since a 27-24 overtime victory in 2013 at San Diego. The Chiefs lead the all-time regular-season series 66-57-1.

Kickoff from SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California, is set for 8:20 p.m. ET. Kansas City is a 5.5-point favorite in the latest Chiefs vs. Chargers odds from Caesars Sportsbook, while the over/under for total points scored is 52.5. Before making any Chargers vs. Chiefs picks, be sure to check out the NFL predictions and betting advice from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 11 of the 2022 NFL season on an incredible 153-108 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season.

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick'em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, the model has set its sights on Chiefs vs. Chargers and just locked in its picks and SNF predictions. You can visit SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are the NFL odds and betting lines and trends for Chiefs vs. Chargers:
• KC: Chiefs are 3-1 against the spread on the road
• LAC: Under has hit in three of last four Chargers games

Why the Chiefs can cover

Tight end Travis Kelce continues to lead the Kansas City receiving corps with a team-high 63 receptions for 740 yards (11.7 average) and eight touchdowns. Kelce has 11 explosive plays of 20 yards or more. He has 309 yards after the catch and has converted 48 first downs. Kelce has at least four receptions in each game, including a season-high 10 for 106 yards in a 20-17 overtime win over the Tennessee Titans on Nov. 6. He had five catches for 51 yards in the Week 2 matchup at Kansas City.

Defensive tackle Chris Jones is having another stellar season for the Chiefs. Jones had two sacks and three tackles for loss in the Week 2 meeting. Jones is one of two players (Myles Garrett) to have at least seven sacks in each of the past five seasons. For the year, he has 17 tackles, including 11 solo, and seven tackles for loss, three pass breakups, two forced fumbles and one fumble recovery. See which team to pick here.

Why the Chargers can cover

Los Angeles' defense looks to play an important role this week against the Chiefs. Linebacker Drue Tranquill led Los Angeles with a career-high 15 tackles last week. He has five or more tackles in each of his first nine games this season and will be looking for his third game in a row with 10 or more tackles. For the season, Tranquill is second on the team with 82 tackles, including a team-high 54 solo, with three sacks for 20 yards and five tackles for loss. He also has two pass breakups and one interception.

Linebacker Khalil Mack registered his seventh sack of season and two tackles for loss last week against San Francisco. Mack is the only player with six or more sacks in each of the past eight seasons. He has 7.5 sacks and 10 tackles for loss in 10 career games vs. Kansas City, and is looking for his fourth game in a row in primetime with a sack. Mack has 31 tackles, including 24 solo, with one pass breakup, two forced fumbles and two fumble recoveries. See which team to pick here.

How to make Chiefs vs. Chargers picks

SportsLine's model is leaning over on the point total, projecting 61 combined points. It has also generated an against-the-spread pick that cashes in over 50% of simulations. You can only get the model's SNF pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Chargers vs. Chiefs on Sunday Night Football? And which side of the spread cashes in over 50% of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Chargers vs. Chiefs spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that is up well over $7,000 on its NFL picks, and find out.