College Football Playoff prediction after TCU loses Big 12 title game

For the second time this week, a favorite in a conference title game went down after TCU dropped the Big 12 Championship Game to Kansas State in overtime. Where does that leave matters in the College Football Playoff race?

That, a day after USC lost a stunner to Utah in the Pac-12 title bout, likely dropping the Trojans from what would have been the final No. 4 seed had they won.

That should be great news for at least one fan base and potentially good news for that of a second, considering Ohio State and Alabama sit just outside the top four of the current rankings coming into Championship Week.

Most observers think the Crimson Tide is out of the picture after losing two games, whereas the Buckeyes have a better shot given they lost one game, and that loss was to the No. 3 team in the country.

Where do things stand right now? Here's our prediction for the updated CFP rankings after the events of the Big 12 Championship Game.

4. Ohio State. Congrats to the Buckeyes, who should be the beneficiary of USC's loss to Utah and Alabama sitting behind OSU in the rankings at two losses, that should in all certainty allow the Buckeyes back in the final four with a huge chance at redemption on the national stage. But given that Ohio State didn't play in a conference championship game, the selectors may decide against ranking it above a team that did.

3. TCU. Despite the loss to Kansas State, most analysts believe that the Horned Frogs have done more than enough to warrant consideration for the top four, going 12-0 in the regular season, beating five ranked teams, and fielding one of the nation's premier offensive units. There's a question if the committee would drop a team that played for its conference title below a team that didn't, especially considering it may want to avoid an Ohio State-Michigan rematch in the semifinal, preferring that to be a potential national title game instead. But with the loss, don't be surprised if the selectors feel pressure to drop the Frogs to No. 4.

2. Michigan. Win or lose the Big Ten title game, the Wolverines are in, and could be poised for a rematch against rival Ohio State, who they beat in the regular season finale. Purdue poses a legitimate threat throwing the ball, and Michigan needs the win here to preserve its hold on the No. 2 seed.

1. Georgia. No debates on the No. 1 team in college football after the defending national champion finished the regular season undefeated and isn't budging from the top four even if it loses to LSU in the SEC Championship Game, something that no one is really expecting will happen. The nation's top scoring defense is the engine behind Georgia's success, while Stetson Bennett has turned this into a big-play aerial attack with two of the game's premier tight ends.

Peach Bowl semifinal: No. 1 Georgia vs. No. 4 Ohio State

Fiesta Bowl semifinal: No. 2 Michigan vs. No. 3 TCU

National Championship Game prediction: No. 1 Georgia vs. No. 2 Michigan

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