From Aaron Rodgers to Derek Carr, NFL offseason predictions: Sando's Pick Six

Super Bowl 57 between the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles is all that stands between the NFL and another packed offseason news cycle.

This edition of the Pick Six column kicks off Super Bowl week with offseason predictions (and dissenting opinions) from league insiders addressing hot offseason topics:
• Whether Packers will trade Aaron Rodgers
• What’s next for Ravens’ Lamar Jackson
• Derek Carr’s market, impact on Cousins
• How Giants will proceed with QB, RB
• Is Tom Brady retired for good this time?
• The big change in officiating will be …

Drop in for the predictions, stay for the conversation, because in just about every case, there’s more than one way to come at these topics.

1. Prediction: The Packers are finished with Aaron Rodgers and will trade him.

The way the 2022 season unraveled for Green Bay affirms that the Packers might have been best off trading Rodgers last offseason instead of entering into a market-setting contract extension with him. That extension does give the team all offseason to find a trading partner before a $58.3 million option bonus is due in Week 1.

“I think the Packers are done with him,” a longtime NFL team executive said on the condition of anonymity for competitive reasons. “The time to jump off was last year. They missed the ability to maximize their compensation. And they missed the playoffs. When they moved Davante (Adams), they should have moved Aaron and said, ‘We are starting over and we have all these picks.’ They could have sent him to Denver.”

The jumping-off point is even more obvious now. Rodgers’ weekly pontifications through The Pat McAfee Show have included suggestions the team should re-sign declining veteran players who are Rodgers’ friends, while questioning whether the Packers will provide the best opportunity for him to win additional MVP awards.

“I think he showed his true colors last offseason when he held them hostage and took $50 million a year,” another exec said. “He knew he could get his best deal from the Packers, and now that he has it, now that he has secured the bag, he is open to leaving.”

The Jets have been rumored as a logical landing spot for Rodgers based on their need at the position and the presence of new offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett, who coached Rodgers in Green Bay. Execs have pointed to Tennessee as an intriguing potential landing spot. The Packers might not trade Rodgers to an NFC contender such as San Francisco even if the 49ers were interested in absorbing the contractual ramifications.

“Tennessee is a great spot for him,” the first exec said.

“I could totally see that,” the second exec said.

What about the Jets?

“I just don’t know that he is going to want to be in New York,” the first exec said. “Mike Vrabel and Tennessee seem more his pace. Whether Vrabel wants to put up with his s—, who knows? But Matt LaFleur was the offensive coordinator with Vrabel, so Vrabel could pick his brain. Robert Saleh and LaFleur are close. Those teams all have ties.”

The Raiders are also in the market for a quarterback pending Carr’s expected departure from the team.

“Vegas would be fine for him,” the first exec said. “It just seems like a weird fit, Rodgers’ personality and Josh McDaniels. I think Josh would probably rather develop his own guy than have Rodgers, and I think he’d rather have (Jimmy) Garoppolo than Rodgers.”

Quite a few other teams need quarterbacks and could be in the mix, depending on factors that include Rodgers’ interest in those markets. The bottom line is that NFL execs think the Packers are more likely to trade Rodgers than to hold onto him.

“Who are these guys?” a veteran coach countered. “I’d love to be the hypothetical owner in Green Bay listening to the GM and president present the trade case to me so I could reply, ‘OK, in summary, you want to trade an MVP-caliber player who still creates 2-3 wins per season, so we can attempt to solidify our evaluation of our third-year drafted quarterback while he is throwing to sub-average weaponry? It sounds like we are patterning ourselves after our rivals. Which one, Chicago?’ ”

2. Prediction: The Baltimore Ravens will use the franchise tag on Lamar Jackson, gauge trade interest and then hold onto him while speculation about Jackson’s long-term future makes 2023 feel like 2022.

Few expect team and player to reach agreement on a long-term extension this offseason, unless Jackson drops his reported demands for a fully guaranteed contract like the one Deshaun Watson signed.

The Ravens did defuse some of the tension by publicly recommitting to Jackson amid questions about whether the contract impasse had contributed to the quarterback missing games late in the season.

“If it wasn’t for all of the comments that (general manager) Eric DeCosta and (coach) John Harbaugh said in their postseason presser, I would think he is going to get traded,” an exec said. “I feel like he is just going to get tagged now and play on the tag. I don’t think anyone is going to offer-sheet him for two ones and his contract demands. The question is, are they going to have the stones to stand in there? Do you risk a chance of a team coming in after the draft and offer-sheeting him then?”

Whether the Ravens apply the exclusive or non-exclusive franchise tag would affect what can happen next.

Using the exclusive tag would cost more and prevent other teams from signing Jackson to an offer sheet while making it easier for the Ravens to maximize compensation in a trade.

The non-exclusive tag would make sense if the Ravens hoped another team might sign Jackson to an offer sheet. In that case, the Ravens would receive two first-round draft choices in return for Jackson if they let him go. It might be harder under those circumstances for Baltimore to command more than that in return from another team.

There could be additional risk for the Ravens. If another team waited until after the 2023 draft before signing Jackson to an offer sheet, those first-round picks would be in 2024 and 2025. Those picks also might be relatively late in the order if Jackson were to succeed with his new team.

Jackson would also have to sign the offer associated with the franchise tag to facilitate any trade. That part might be a formality if another team were willing to enter into a contract amenable to Jackson.

Matt Cassel is the most recent quarterback traded while on the franchise tag. The New England Patriots used the tag to retain his rights in 2009 before trading him and Vrabel to the Chiefs for a second-round pick.

“It is hard to build an offense around Lamar,” another exec said. “You can certainly do it, but a place like the Jets, is that the best fit for what Nate Hackett wants to do? Mike McDaniel probably would do great with Lamar. Maybe a Lamar-for-Tua trade makes sense. Maybe Atlanta would make sense for Lamar with Arthur Smith, but I think Baltimore tags him and holds onto him.”

3. Prediction: Derek Carr’s next contract will become a tipping point for whether mid-tier quarterbacks still get paid like upper-tier QBs. Execs are taking the under, but it could be wishful thinking.

Solid veteran quarterbacks rarely reach the market, but with Carr’s contract calling for him to receive $40.4 million on Feb. 15, his release from the Raiders appears more likely than Las Vegas finding a trade partner for its recently benched quarterback.

Why would anyone else pay Carr anything approaching the salary Las Vegas is seeking to avoid paying?

“I am fascinated by Carr because I think he may be the first person who suffers from, ‘I am not paying a mediocre QB,’ ” an exec from a team with an established quarterback said. “I think Carr is more likely to be Nick Foles than Kirk Cousins. Foles got an OK deal with the Jags, but nothing earth-shattering even at the time. When you look at the landing spots, who is going to go pay Derek Carr $30 million?”

Kirk Cousins signed a fully guaranteed deal with Minnesota for three years and $84 million in 2018. He became the NFL’s highest-paid player and the first quarterback to sign a fully guaranteed deal spanning more than one season. Foles signed a four-year, $88 million deal with Jacksonville a year later, but was released after one year and $30.5 million.

Carr is closer to Cousins than Foles in sustained career production. Will that equate to the same sort of deal?

“That Garoppolo/Carr level of quarterback on the open market is going to be fascinating,” another exec said. “The top of the market is established at $40-50 million, and even some of the $40 million guys aren’t worth it. Then you have Kirk Cousins making $35 million, and he is going to be in the last year of his deal.”

If Carr and Garoppolo settle for deals in the $15-25 million range, then what?

“What happens with Carr and Garoppolo is going to be instructive to what Kirk Cousins should expect on the open market,” this exec said. “It’s going to either scare Minnesota into doing another deal, like they did last year, or Kirk Cousins is finally going to fail in the business of football.”

Some failure that would be! By the end of the 2023 season, Cousins will have earned more than $200 million from the Vikings alone.

An agent discounted the idea Carr’s next deal would come in as low as the execs suggested it could. He thought there were too many teams desperate for quarterbacks, and too few viable options, for Carr’s market to crater. He cautioned that what some execs say in February could differ from what other execs do in March.

Carr, Garoppolo and Jacoby Brissett are three veteran quarterbacks teams might consider signing as starters, at varied price points. Add three or four drafted rookies to that group, and there still would be more teams with potential openings — nine, at least — than there are viable starters, unless you’re eager to play with Sam Darnold, Baker Mayfield, Teddy Bridgewater or the like.

Houston, Indianapolis, Las Vegas, New Orleans, the Jets, Tampa Bay and Washington all might need quarterbacks. Miami is a wild card with Tua Tagovailoa’s health concerns. San Francisco and Arizona could have shorter-term needs.

“The agents like to keep driving it up, and I totally understand that, and it seems like there is always one team that pays,” a third exec said. “You just have to have the guts to not do it. Those good coaches like Brian Daboll can get more from the cheaper guys. Kyle Shanahan doesn’t need a superstar quarterback. Seattle trades Russell Wilson and performs better with Geno Smith. I think it’s a really fascinating tipping point to watch.”

4. Prediction: The Giants will not overcommit to Daniel Jones or Saquon Barkley, giving themselves flexibility to draft a quarterback in 2024.

I’m banking on the Giants signing both players for less than the franchise-tag values at their positions.

Under this scenario, the team would use the franchise or transition tag to help leverage a workable multi-year deal with Barkley before free agency.

At quarterback, the Giants would offer Jones a shorter-term deal at less than the $32 million annual average associated with the franchise tag. The team would be betting on Daboll’s ability to get more from a cheaper free-agent quarterback (or a rookie) if Jones thought he could find a better situation elsewhere.

The hope would be that Jones might value Daboll’s role in his development sufficiently to accept such a deal.

It all sounds so easy, but the Giants face a balancing act as they seek to reward Jones and Barkley for strong seasons while maintaining long-term flexibility.

“For a team that is just getting out of cap trouble, they would be wise to slow-play it, but it is really hard to slow-play two guys,” another exec said. “When you are setting up a program, you want to send the right message to your players, to your coaches. The message is almost as important as the dollars.”

The Giants under Daboll are facing a situation similar to the one the Rams faced following Sean McVay’s first season with Los Angeles. Both teams wanted to reward running backs coming off excellent seasons.

“When you are trying to build a culture, it is really hard not to reward players who are playing at a high level and at high volume as well,” the first exec said.

Todd Gurley had played 80 percent of the snaps for the Rams in 2017, rushing for 1,305 yards and 13 touchdowns for a team that reached the playoffs unexpectedly. The Rams then entered into a four-year, $60 million extension with Gurley, only to regret the agreement.

Barkley played 80 percent of the Giants’ snaps last season while rushing for 1,312 yards and 10 touchdowns. He turns 26 this week (Gurley was entering his age-24 season when the Rams re-signed him).

“Is anybody going to value Saquon Barkley more than the New York Giants?” an agent asked. “So where is Saquon going? You don’t have to franchise him. Save the tag for your quarterback. It is a one-year deal. Who cares about a one-year deal?”

That depends whether you think Daboll can get as much or more from another quarterback at a considerably lower rate.

5. Prediction: Tom Brady will play again if the right situation presents itself.

That is quite the qualifier, admittedly, but let us paint a picture.

“You are telling me Brady is going to be calling San Francisco at Jacksonville next season and he is going to be looking down to the field at Trey Lance and Trevor Lawrence and it’s going to be a 7-7 game in the second quarter and he is going to be sitting there saying, ‘I’m where I should be, in Jacksonville’s press box?’ ” a veteran coach said. “He has played too well, too recently. I just don’t buy it.”

That doesn’t mean Brady is bluffing by announcing his retirement.

“I’m sure he knows all of his (current) options and would rather do this,” another exec said. “I truly think he got to the point where he wanted to retire last year, he just didn’t know how. Last year and this year showed him the fantasy of going out on top is probably gone. Given where his kids are in New York and Miami, there are only a handful of places he could maybe play. Does he want to start over and do all that?”

Brady was linked to the Dolphins last offseason, to the point Miami incurred tampering penalties for its pursuit of him. The Dolphins could need a quarterback in the near future as chronic concussions threaten Tagovailoa’s career.

The Raiders have been seen as a logical landing spot for Brady, given his ties to McDaniels. The 49ers seemed like a good fit given the state of their team and Brady’s childhood fandom of the team.

Jason Witten spent one year in the ESPN broadcast booth before returning for a final season. Brady is much older. He might stay retired. But if the right situation presents itself, will he be able to resist? Not everyone is sold.

6. Prediction: The big change in NFL officiating will be … nothing, unless there is a catastrophic breakdown in the Super Bowl.

With so much focus on officiating in the championship round, one might expect the league to take a hard look at something. But there’s a huge gap between what the public thinks of officiating and what the NFL’s officiating brass think of officiating.

As a result, nothing is changing unless someone with stature is sufficiently aggrieved — think Sean Payton after his Saints came out on the short end of that postseason non-call for pass interference against the Rams.

“Everyone is all hellbent on the playoffs and the officiating and the leadership in officiating, but guess what, they are running it back because there is no one to spearhead change,” an exec said. “Sean Payton is not getting involved, Bill Belichick is not getting involved, Andy Reid is not getting involved, Rich McKay is not getting involved, Kyle Shanahan is not getting involved and Philadelphia isn’t getting involved. Who is standing on the table?”

No one is standing on the table unless, say, Super Bowl referee Carl Cheffers sufficiently ticks off someone as influential as Chiefs coach Andy Reid.

Four years ago, Reid and the Chiefs proposed changes to overtime after New England eliminated Kansas City from the playoffs without Reid’s team possessing the ball in the extra period.

This season, Cheffers’ roughing-the-passer call against Chiefs defensive tackle Chris Jones cost Kansas City against the Raiders. The call enraged Reid to the point that Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes said he couldn’t recall his coach reacting more angrily to an official’s call.

Will anything major in officiating change? Tune in to the Super Bowl and find out.