Man City vs Tottenham prediction, odds, betting tips and best bets for Premier League Thursday match

by 24USATVJan. 19, 2023, 8:01 p.m. 14
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Two teams in desperate need of a result clash at the Etihad on Thursday when Manchester City host Tottenham in a midweek Premier League match.

Man City face an eight-point deficit behind leaders Arsenal in the Premier League title race, having fallen to bitter rivals Manchester United last time out. Pep Guardiola's side cannot afford any more missteps, as Arsenal continue to rack up points in bunches.

Tottenham, meanwhile, are in free fall, having dropped points in five of their last seven games. A weekend defeat to Arsenal in the North London derby was extra bitter since they were dominated for much of the game by their hated rivals.

Neither side will want to stumble again here, with Man City risking falling further behind in the title race and Tottenham slowly drifting away from top four contention.

Given Tottenham's poor recent form, Manchester City are heavy favorites in this match at home, even if they haven't looked their best of late. Man City have been betting darlings for quite some time, only just giving way to Arsenal in the title odds despite trailing for most of the season on points.

Goals are expected in this match, given Spurs have conceded in bunches, and the total has been inflated to 3.5. There are some concerns about Spurs finding the back of the net, but the expectation is that Man City could possibly hit that over by themselves, with Tottenham potentially chipping in as well.

Man City got some good news at training on Tuesday as both central defenders Ruben Dias and John Stones returned to the field. Their absences have hurt the City defence, as replacements Manuel Akanji and Nathan Ake have not been consistent performers.

Dias is unlikely to slide into the starting lineup as he's been out since suffering a hamstring injury on World Cup duty, but Stones could be in contention to start. Kevin De Bruyne was not at training on Tuesday due to a personal concern, but he is expected to be available.

Tottenham have been beset by various injuries for weeks now, but they are slowly returning to health. Rodrigo Bentancur could be available for his first Spurs game since December 11 in what would be a major boost to Antonio Conte's plans.

Lucas Moura is missing with an Achilles injury, but Richarlison came off the bench against Arsenal and should be a contender to start here.

MORE: Updated Premier League table with breakdowns of every race
• Man City have not lost consecutive Premier League matches since December 2018. Since then, they have secured 20 wins and one draw in matches immediately following league defeats.
• Tottenham have four wins in their last six Premier League matches against Man City, including three clean sheets. They won both meetings in 2021/22, becoming just the third team to do the Premier League double over Man City since the start of the 2017/18 season.
• Erling Haaland's 246-minute Premier League goal drought is his longest of the season, beating the 175 minutes he went without scoring between his first and third matches of the campaign.

Man City punish teams prone to mistakes, and Tottenham is one of those sides entering this match.

Pep Guardiola's men haven't exactly played the highest quality of football themselves slipping on a number of occasions of late, but they possess the ability to make the opposition pay for their bad decisions, and Spurs could find out the hard way in this match.

Man City will have the added incentive of hoping to put Antonio Conte back in his place after Spurs threatened to ruin City's title charge last season. The Conte success story at Spurs seems to be coming undone fast, and there's nothing to show that Tottenham can either keep City from scoring or outdo them in a high-scoring affair.

Manchester City simply do not pick up yellow cards very often, and that will be boosted by the match official Simon Hooper, who has given out the fewest yellow cards per game of any official in the Premier League this season.

Hooper has officiated 13 Premier League matches this season, and has handed out fewer than four cards in nine of them. Manchester City average just 0.9 cards per game this season, doing their part as well. The biggest question will be whether Tottenham end up hitting the over themselves, as they average 1.9 cards per game. But given the official's track record, this appears a good play with decent value.

The under 2.5 cards selection at over 2/1 is also very enticing, but here, we play it safe with just slightly under 1/1 odds.

Erling Haaland is on the longest goal-less drought of his season, and what better way to cure what ails him than facing a Tottenham side that has just one Premier League clean sheet in the last three months?

Since shutting out Everton on October 15, Tottenham have conceded an incredible 13.66 expected goals (xG) across their last eight matches, which amounts to 1.70 xG per match. That's including games against objectively inferior opponents such as Leeds (1.72 xG), Brentford (2.25 xG), Aston Villa (1.22 xG), and even Bournemouth (two goals scored on 0.89 xG).

There's no better time than this match for Haaland to get back on the scoresheet. While a regression to the mean was always expected, this is a perfect opportunity to find the net again.

We don't often recommend hammering first goalscorer odds, as these are very difficult to predict, but given Tottenham's run of disastrous first halves, it might work to seek the odds boost that comes with projecting Haaland to have an early impact on this match.

Here's when and where fans can watch the Manchester City vs. Tottenham match in major regions around the world:

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