Monday Night Football odds, line: Saints vs. Buccaneers predictions, NFL picks, bets by expert who's 43-26

The New Orleans Saints will look to get back on track when they clash with the NFC South-rival Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Monday Night Football. The Saints (4-8) failed to crack the scoreboard in Week 12 in a 13-0 loss at San Francisco, a week after defeating the Los Angeles Rams, 27-20. The Buccaneers (5-6), meanwhile, couldn't find their usual magic and lost 23-17 in overtime at Cleveland last Sunday. The loss had snapped Tampa Bay's two-game winning streak.

Kickoff from Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Florida, is set for 8:15 p.m. ET. Tampa Bay is a three-point favorite in the latest Saints vs. Buccaneers odds from Caesars Sportsbook, while the over-under for total points scored is 41. Before making any Buccaneers vs. Saints picks or predictions, make sure you check out what SportsLine's resident Saints expert, Larry Hartstein, has to say.

A former lead writer for Covers and The Linemakers, Hartstein combines a vast network of Vegas sources with an analytical approach he honed while working for Pro Football Focus. Entering the 2022 NFL season, he is 427-344 all-time on NFL sides (plus $3,764 for $100 players), including 394-330 against the spread. Hartstein went 68-50 ATS (58 percent) and 8-3 on money-line plays last season for a profit of $1,552.

In addition, Hartstein has gone 43-26 on his last 69 NFL picks involving the Saints, returning $1,409. Anyone who has followed him is way up.

Now, Hartstein has set his sights on Saints vs. Buccaneers and just locked in his picks and NFL predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see his picks. Now, here are several NFL odds and betting lines for Bucs vs. Saints:
• NO: Saints are 1-5 against the spread on the road
• TB: Buccaneers are 4-1 ATS in their last five games in December
• Saints vs. Buccaneers picks: See picks at SportsLine

Why the Buccaneers can cover

Wide receiver Mike Evans became the sixth player in NFL history with 10,000-plus receiving yards (10,003) and 75 or more receiving touchdowns (78) in his first nine seasons. He has 51 catches in 2022 and is the sixth player all-time with 50-plus receptions in each of his first nine career seasons. He also has five or more catches in four of his past five games. For the year, he has 51 receptions for 702 yards (13.8 average) and three touchdowns with 12 explosive plays of 20 yards or more.

Wide receiver Julio Jones has been working his way back to form after an early-season injury, and had three catches for 40 yards in the loss at Cleveland. Jones has 75 or more receiving yards in seven of his past eight games against New Orleans. In six games this season, Jones has 14 receptions for 218 yards (15.6 average) and two touchdowns. He also has three explosive plays, including a season high of 48 yards, and has converted 10 first downs. See which team to pick here.

Why the Saints can cover

Quarterback Andy Dalton passed for 204 yards last week in the loss at San Francisco. Dalton passed for 280 yards and two touchdowns without an interception for a 107.5 rating in his last start against the Buccaneers (Oct. 28, 2018), as a member of the Cincinnati Bengals. He had two touchdowns in his only career start at Tampa Bay (Nov. 30, 2014), also as a member of the Bengals. For the season, Dalton has passed for 2,023 yards and 14 touchdowns with seven interceptions.

Running back Alvin Kamara has 946 scrimmage yards and needs just 54 more for his sixth straight 1,000-yard season. He needs one reception for his fifth career season with 50-plus catches and has 422 catches since entering the NFL in 2017. Kamara has the second-most receptions by a running back in his first six seasons in NFL history. Roger Craig has the most with 434. Kamara has four touchdowns (three rushing and one receiving) in his past four games against Tampa Bay. See which team to pick here.

How to make Saints vs. Buccaneers picks

Hartstein has analyzed this matchup and while we can tell you he's leaning Under on the point total, he has discovered a critical X-factor that has him jumping all over one side of the spread. He's only sharing what it is, and which side to back, at SportsLine.

Who wins Buccaneers vs. Saints on Monday Night Football? And which critical X-factor makes one side of the spread a must-back? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Buccaneers vs. Saints spread to back, all from the expert who is 43-26 on picks involving New Orleans, and find out.