Previewing the Buffalo Bills Week 11 matchup with the Indianapolis Colts

In Week 10, the Buffalo Bills made an emphatic statement in a 45-17 thrashing of the New York Jets. The margin for error for the Bills is still razor-thin, however, as the New England Patriots are sitting right behind them at 7-4. Buffalo needs to take care of business against an Indianapolis Colts team that has won five of its last seven after starting 0-3.

The Buffalo Bills are 38-32-1 all-time against the Colts. The Bills have won two of their three matchups against the Colts under Sean McDermott, and four of the last six dating back to 2010.

The Bills have beaten the Colts in their last four games in Orchard Park, with Indy’s last win there came in 2003. The average margin between the Bills and Colts since 2010 is just a single point, but only three of those were within a score.

The Buffalo Bills and the Indianapolis Colts last met in the Wild Card Round of the 2020 season. The Bills were 13-3 and coming off their first AFC East title since 1995, while the Colts went 11-5 and gave the Titans a run for their money in the AFC South.

The Colts led 10-7 late in the first half, but Buffalo would score 17 unanswered points before the Colts brought it back within a score. Tyler Bass nailed the biggest kick of his career to this point; a 54-yard field goal to put the Bills up two scores with eight minutes to go.

The Colts would score again to bring it within three, but their final drive stalled around midfield, and the Bills won their first playoff game in 25 years.

In Week 10, the Colts survived a late rally from the Jacksonville Jaguars to win 23-17, improving their record to 5-5. The Colts were outgained by the Jaguars 331-295 and were shaky 5-15 on third down.

Carson Wentz was pedestrian against the Jaguars, completing 22 of 34 passes for 180 yards. Offensively, Jonathan Taylor did most of the heavy lifting for the Colts, rushing 21 times for 116 yards and a touchdown. With his performance, Taylor drew level with Derrick Henry for the league lead in rushing yards.

Defensively, the Colts held Trevor Lawrence in check; he completed just 16 of 35 for 162 yards and was sacked three times. The Indianapolis defense has been middle of the pack so far, sitting at 13th in points allowed, and 20th in yards allowed.

With New England’s win over the Atlanta Falcons on Thursday Night, The Buffalo Bills enter another must-win game this week. The Bills are allowing a league-best 15 points per game, however, and are scoring 31.1 points per game, good for second in the league.

If the Bills can hold Taylor in check, they will be able to hold the entire Colts offense in check. The main concern for the Bills will be if their offensive line can hold up if Spencer Brown is forced to miss the game. The Bills looked like they were back last week, and they’re going to need to be at their best to beat a hot Colts team.