Saints vs. Bills odds, line: 2021 Thanksgiving Day NFL picks, predictions from top model on 130-91 roll

by 24USATVNov. 25, 2021, 7 p.m. 19
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The Buffalo Bills (6-4) will visit the New Orleans Saints (5-5) to cap off the 2021 Thanksgiving Day NFL schedule. The Bills have been up and down over the past four weeks, alternating wins and losses, and fell to second place in the AFC East. New Orleans is currently on a three-game losing streak, but still has a chance to make the NFL playoff picture.

Kickoff from Caesars Superdome is set for 8:20 p.m. ET. Buffalo is favored by 6.5 points in the latest Saints vs. Bills odds from Caesars Sportsbook, while the Over-Under is 45. Before locking in your Bills vs. Saints picks, check out the NFL predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up almost $7,300 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception six-plus years ago. The model enters Week 12 of the 2021 season on an incredible 130-91 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season.

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past five years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94 percent of CBS Sports Football Pick'em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, the model has simulated Bills vs. Saints 10,000 times and just revealed its coveted NFL picks and predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see its picks. Here are several NFL odds and betting trends for Bills vs. Saints:
• BUF: Bills are 4-0-1 against the spread in their last five games following an ATS loss
• NO: Under is 8-0-1 in Saints' last nine Thursday games

Why the Bills can cover

Buffalo rolls into this matchup with the No. 1 ranked defense in the NFL. They allow 283.7 yards per game with 17.6 points per game. This unit hasn't given up over 300 yards passing in any matchup this season, and the highest total came against the New York Jets, who threw for 296 yards.

Buffalo is also second in the league with a plus-10 turnover differential. This defense has recorded 15 interceptions with nine fumbles. There are nine players with at least one interception. The Bills are very disciplined on the backend of their defense and force teams to methodically march down the field. That may be a tall task for a Saints offense that may be without running backs Alvin Kamara (knee) and Mark Ingram (knee).

Why the Saints can cover

New Orleans is ranked 10th in total defense with 342 total yards per game. This unit is led by linebacker Demario Davis, who has a team-high 65 total tackles, including 44 solo. The 2012 third-round pick is first on the team with 10 tackles for loss. Davis has logged at least eight tackles in four games, including two games with double-digit stops.

Marshon Lattimore is the No. 1 corner on this squad and is tied for fifth in the NFL with 10 pass deflections. The Ohio State product has secured 33 total tackles with one interception. Six-time Pro Bowler Cameron Jordan is a strong defender coming off the edge. Jordan is second on the team with five tackles for loss while logging three sacks.

How to make Bills vs. Saints picks

SportsLine's model is leaning under on the total, projecting the teams to combine for 45 points. The model also says one side of the spread has all the value. You can only see the model's Bills vs. Saints picks at SportsLine.

So who wins Bills vs. Saints on Thanksgiving night? And which side of the spread has all the value? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Bills vs. Saints spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that is up over $7,900 on NFL picks, and find out.

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