Saints vs. Seahawks player props, odds, Monday Night Football picks: Alvin Kamara under 95.5 rushing yards

by 24USATVOct. 26, 2021, 1 a.m. 23

For years, a Saints vs. Seahawks battle on Monday Night Football would have meant watching Drew Brees and Russell Wilson going head-to-head in a battle between two of the NFC's best. Instead, it will be Jameis Winston and Geno Smith at the helm after Brees retired and Wilson was put on injured reserve with a finger injury. The Saints are four-point favorites with the over-under at 41.5 in the latest NFL odds at Caesars Sportsbook, but there are also plenty of NFL player props for you to target as well.

Neither Winston nor Smith has looked prolific this year and they have similar over-unders for passing yards, with the latest NFL prop bets listing Winston at 201.5 and Smith at 204.5. Is there value on betting either side of those NFL props for Monday Night Football, or should you look for value elsewhere? Before making any Saints vs. Seahawks player props for Monday Night Football, you need to see the Saints vs. Seahawks prop predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up almost $7,700 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception six-plus years ago. It went a sizzling 24-14 on top-rated NFL picks last season, returning more than $800. The model also enters Week 7 of the 2021 season on an incredible 125-85 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season.

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past five years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94 percent of CBS Sports Football Pick'em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

It can also be used to crush NFL prop picks. Last season, the player over-under prop picks went 389-310, returning over $3,000.

With Seahawks vs. Saints on Monday Night Football, the model has evaluated the NFL player props from Caesars and found five strong bets. You can only see them here.

After simulating Seahawks vs. Saints 10,000 times, the model predicts that Saints running back Alvin Kamara will go under 95.5 yards rushing. With defenses more focused on him after Brees' retirement and without Michael Thomas (ankle), Kamara has had a tough time finding space in 2021.

He's averaging just 3.9 yards per carry and even though he's averaging a career-high 18.8 carries per game, he's only topped 95.5 yards once this season. Kamara currently ranks 51st among NFL running backs in breakaway run rate (1.1 percent) and the Seahawks have now gone three weeks without allowing a 100-yard rusher as they make steady improvements in that phase of the game. The model predicts Kamara finishes with 74 yards.

SportsLine's NFL model also says Seahawks wide receiver Tyler Lockett will top 46.5 receiving yards. Lockett began the season with two monster performances, catching four passes for 100 yards and two scores in Week 1 and then coming back with eight catches for 178 yards and a touchdown in Week 2.

Since then, he's been held to 35 yards or fewer in three of the last four games, but he's still been targeted 26 times during that four-game stretch. New Orleans has ranked 23rd in the NFL against the pass so far this season and Lockett's big-play ability means he's capable of hitting that over with as little as one catch. The model is predicting he averages five receptions for 61 yards.

How to make NFL player prop bets for Seahawks vs. Saints

In addition, the model says another star easily surpasses his yardage total and has a plus-money prop payout you'll want to jump on. You need to see the model's analysis before making any Saints vs. Seahawks prop bets.

Which Saints vs. Seahawks prop bets should you back on Monday Night Football? And which star smashes his total? Visit SportsLine now to see the top Seahawks vs. Saints prop picks, all from the model that's up almost $7,700 on top-rated NFL picks.


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