UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland odds, predictions, lines: MMA expert reveals surprising fight card picks

Stephen Thompson says he knew from the first time he trained in martial arts as a pre-teen that he wanted to be a UFC champion one day. The former two-time title challenger isn't giving up on his goal and takes another step toward realizing it Saturday when he meets slugger Kevin Holland in the main event of UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland. The battle of welterweight contenders will headline the main card (10 p.m. ET) from the Amway Center in Orlando. Thompson has gone 3-4 since dropping two title fights to former champion Tyron Woodley, but he told the media this week he still believes he has what it takes to capture the UFC belt. He can get back in the title-shot picture with a win over Holland, who is an explosive striker looking for a signature win at welterweight after moving down from middleweight.

Holland is a -150 favorite (risk $150 to win $100), while Thompson is priced at +130 in the latest UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland odds from Caesars Sportsbook. In the co-main event, former lightweight champion Rafael Dos Anjos (-550) takes on brawler Bryan Barberena (+425). Before locking in any UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland picks, make sure you check out the MMA predictions and betting advice from SportsLine analyst Kyle Marley.

Marley won the first-ever "ToutMaster" UFC betting contest sponsored by MMAOddsBreaker and appears regularly on multiple MMA betting and daily Fantasy shows. He watches every single fight for every professional MMA card and does extensive research before each event.

Over the past three-plus years, $100 bettors who have followed Marley's picks are up more than $12,000. The accomplished MMA analyst kicked off the 2022 UFC season in January by telling SportsLine members to back Calvin Kattar (+200) against Giga Chikadze (-240) in the featherweight main event. Kattar's lopsided unanimous-decision victory gave Marley's followers another easy winner. Anyone who has followed him is way up.

Now, with UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland in sight, Marley has studied the card from top to bottom and revealed his top selections. Marley's UFC Fight Night picks are only available at SportsLine.

This matchup is among the most appealing non-title fights that could be made in the welterweight division and that's because Thompson and Holland have shared strengths but varying disciplines.

Thompson goes by the nickname "Wonderboy" because he was a prodigal kickboxing and karate talent from a young age and carried those skills into his mixed martial arts debut in 2010. He's now 39 but has repeatedly said he feels like he's in his 20s and has no plans to retire anytime soon. Thompson's elusive style has allowed him to mostly avoid serious damage throughout his career, and he is known for his steadfast commitment to training and a healthy diet.

In November 2016, he fought then-champion Tyron Woodley to a draw and lost a subsequent rematch by a narrow decision, but has never relented on his goal to become a UFC champion. He could get back in the title picture by beating Holland, who is one of the best athletes in the division.

Holland is known for his straight-ahead style that involves relentless combinations with speed and surprising power. He became a rising star during the pandemic when he took several short-notice fights and compiled a 5-0 record, tying the UFC mark for most victories in one calendar year.

However, the 30-year-old Texas resident appeared undersized against the upper tier of the middleweight division, and he moved to welterweight following losses to middleweight contenders Marvin Vettori and Derek Brunson.

Holland won his first two welterweight fights by stoppage but is coming off a submission loss to feared prospect Khamzat Chimaev, who is now the No. 3-ranked welterweight. You can only see who to pick at UFC Fight Night here.

We'll share one of Marley's UFC Fight Night selections here: He is siding with Sergei Pavlovich (-180) to get his hand raised against Tai Tuivasa (+160) in a battle of rising heavyweight contenders on the main card.

Tuivasa (14-4) started his UFC career with three consecutive losses and might have been just one more defeat away from losing his job with the promotion. But the 29-year-old Australian brawler turned things around with five consecutive stoppage victories. He has fast become one of the promotion's most popular fighters because of his lethal power, granite chin and victory celebration that involves guzzling beer from a worn shoe. However, he is coming off a loss to former interim title holder Ciryl Gane in September.

Pavlovich (16-1) has emerged as a versatile and powerful prospect who has captured four straight stoppage victories following a loss in his UFC debut. The 30-year-old Russian fighter knocked out former title challenger Derrick Lewis in July.

"Both fighters have massive power and one of them is likely getting knocked out. I will side with Pavlovich because he is aggressive from the opening bell, and he has a 9-inch reach advantage over Tuivasa," Marley told SportsLine. See who else to back right here.

Marley also has strong picks for Thompson vs. Holland and every other bout on the UFC Fight Night card. He's also backing a fighter who "should mop the floor" with his opponent on the way to a dominant victory. Those UFC picks are only available at SportsLine.

Who wins Thompson vs. Holland? And how exactly does each fight end? Visit SportsLine now to get detailed picks on every fight at UFC Fight Night, all from the incomparable expert who's up more than $13,000 on MMA in the past three years, and find out.

See full UFC Fight Night picks, predictions, and best bets here

Kevin Holland (-150) vs. Stephen Thompson (+130)

Rafael Dos Anjos (-550) vs. Bryan Barberena (+425)

Sergei Pavlovich (-180) vs. Tai Tuivasa (+160)

Matheus Nicolau (-380) vs. Matt Schnell (+310)

Jack Hermansson (-180) vs. Roman Dolidze (+160)

Kyle Daukaus (-200) vs. Eryk Anders (+175)

Niko Price (-140) vs. Philip Rowe (+120)

Emily Ducote (-120) vs. Angela Hill (+100)

Scott Holtzman (-150) vs. Clay Guida (+130)

Marc Diakiese (-290) vs. Michael Johnson (+245)

Jonathan Pearce (-500) vs. Darren Elkins (+400)

Amanda Ribas (-120) vs. Tracy Cortez (+100)