Blake Snell Makes The San Francisco Giants Wild Card Favorites

Blake Snell finally has a destination. The reigning National League Cy Young Award winner agreed to a two-year, $62 million deal with the San Francisco Giants with an opt-out after the 2024 season according to Jon Heyman of the New York Post.

Snell remained on the free agent market for an unexpectedly long time after a great walk year with the San Diego Padres. He led the NL with a 2.25 ERA, 5.8 hits per nine innings, and 6.0 WAR (Baseball-Reference version) last season, becoming the seventh pitcher to win a Cy Young in both leagues after he first won the honor in 2018 with the Tampa Bay Rays. He also struck out 234 batters in 180 innings, finishing second to Spencer Strider among qualified starters in both strikeouts and strikeout rate (31.5%).

At the onset of the offseason, MLB Trade Rumors projected him to sign a seven-year, $200 million deal. He fell significantly short of that in terms of total value and length, but his $31 million average annual value exceeded it. If he has another excellent season, he will likely exercise his opt out clause and try for a long-term contract again next year.

Still, free agents of his caliber rarely remain unsigned until March 18, less than two weeks before Opening Day. He even threw a 60-pitch simulated outing three days earlier to prove his worth to potential suitors—as if his dominance last year wasn’t enough of a resume. He was one of four top free agents who were without a contract as spring training began—all of whom are Scott Boras clients—along with outfielder Cody Bellinger, third baseman Matt Chapman, starting pitcher Jordan Montgomery, and Snell. Chapman and Snell are now teammates, while Bellinger returned to the Chicago Cubs and Montgomery is still looking for a ballclub.

Part of the reason why he lingered in free agency could be a disparity in his perceived value between front offices and his representatives. On one hand, winning the Cy Young speaks for itself. However, his 99 walks were the most in MLB last year and his 3.85 ERA from 2019-2022 was more middle-of-the-road. His outstanding ERA in 203 was due in part to his 86.7% left-on-base percentage, which is unsustainably high and not likely to repeat.

Nevertheless, he can make more of a difference for the Giants than he would for just about any other team. With starting pitchers Robbie Ray, Alex Cobb, Tristan Beck, and Sean Hjelle all expected to start the year on the IL and miss significant time, San Francisco’s rotation was woefully thin for a team with playoff aspirations. He will now form a formidable one-two punch with Logan Webb, followed by free agent converted reliever Jordan Hicks and promising rookies Kyle Harrison and Keaton Winn.

By devoting $31 million to Snell this season, the Giants have now surpassed the $237 million luxury tax threshold. According to Cot’s Baseball Contracts, their competitive balance tax payroll is just under $252 million. As a first-time tax payor, they owe an additional 20% on every dollar above the limit, which is a tax penalty of almost $3 million.

That’s a small price to pay for a adding a pitcher of Snell’s capability. It’s too early to tell if he’ll be ready to take the mound in their opening series against his former team in San Diego, but if so, that will be one of the more compelling storylines in baseball at the beginning of the season.

While the Giants probably won’t approach the juggernaut Los Angeles Dodgers in the NL West, this signing may have catapulted them past the Padres and Arizona Diamondbacks in the race for a wild card spot.